ILS glossary

What is a Modelled Loss Trigger?

A trigger based on losses estimated by running actual event parameters through a specified catastrophe model.

Lecture 2

Modelled Loss Trigger

A trigger based on losses estimated by running actual event parameters through a specified catastrophe model.

How it works in practice

After an earthquake in Chile, the cat bond's calculation agent inputs the recorded magnitude, depth, and epicentre coordinates into a predetermined catastrophe model. The model estimates insured losses of $1.4 billion. Because this exceeds the bond's $1 billion trigger threshold, investors lose a proportional share of their principal. The payout is based on the modelled estimate, not the sponsor's actual claims.

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