Risk Modelling glossary

What is a Return Period?

The average recurrence interval of a loss of a given magnitude. A 1-in-100 year event has a 1% annual probability.

Lecture 1Lecture 7

Return Period

The average recurrence interval of a loss of a given magnitude. A 1-in-100 year event has a 1% annual probability.

How it works in practice

A catastrophe model estimates that an earthquake causing $5 billion in insured losses to a Japanese insurer has a return period of 200 years. This means there is a 0.5% probability of such an event occurring in any single year. It does not mean the event will occur exactly once every 200 years; three such events could theoretically happen in the same decade.

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