ILS glossary

What is a Probability of First Loss (PFL)?

The annual probability that a cat bond layer will experience any loss, equal to the exceedance probability at the attachment point.

Study ILS Full Glossary

Definition

Probability of First Loss (PFL)

The annual probability that a cat bond layer will experience any loss, equal to the exceedance probability at the attachment point.

Example

How it works in practice

A cat bond covering California earthquake risk has a PFL of 1.5%. This means there is a 1.5% chance in any given year that the bond's trigger will be activated and investors will lose at least some of their principal. The PFL does not say how much investors would lose in such a scenario; it only measures the likelihood that any loss occurs at all.

Related terms

Related glossary entries

Attachment PointILS Conditional Expected Loss (CEL)ILS CouponILS Exhaustion PointILS Expected Loss (EL)ILS Expense LoadILS

Full glossary — 91 terms

Browse all terms

A B C D E G H I L M N O P R S T V W Z

A

Aggregation RiskCyber ARC (African Risk Capacity)ILS AT1 (Additional Tier 1)Credit Attachment PointILS

B

Basis RiskILS Binary TriggerILS

C

Calculation AgentILS Cat BondILS Catastrophe ModelRisk Modelling CCRIF (Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility)ILS CedantReinsurance CoCo (Contingent Convertible)Credit CollateralILS Collateralised ReinsuranceILS Conditional Expected Loss (CEL)ILS CorrelationILS CouponILS Coupon DeferralCredit Cyber Cat BondCyber

D

DDoS AttackCyber DiversificationILS Due DiligenceILS

E

ESGILS Exhaustion PointILS Expected Loss (EL)ILS Expense LoadILS ExposureGeneral Insurance Extension RiskILS

G

GDPRCyber Green Cat BondILS

H

Hazard ModuleRisk Modelling HIM SeasonILS Hybrid CapitalCredit

I

IBRD (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development)ILS ILW (Industry Loss Warranty)Reinsurance Indemnity TriggerILS Industry Loss Index TriggerILS

L

Loss Exceedance CurveRisk Modelling

M

Mark-to-MarketILS Mark-to-ModelILS MaturityILS MEL (Multiple of Expected Loss)ILS Modelled Loss TriggerILS Moral HazardGeneral Insurance

N

Net Risk Multiple (NRM)ILS New Issue ConcessionILS NIST CSFCyber NotchingCredit

O

OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread)Credit Offering CircularILS

P

Parametric TriggerILS PCS (Property Claims Services)ILS Peak PerilILS PerilGeneral Insurance PERILS AGILS PremiumGeneral Insurance Probability of First Loss (PFL)ILS Probable Maximum Loss (PML)Risk Modelling Proportional PayoutILS

R

RansomwareCyber Reg SILS ReinsuranceReinsurance Resilience BondILS RetrocessionReinsurance Return PeriodRisk Modelling Risk LoadILS Risk-Free RateCredit RoadshowILS RT1 (Restricted Tier 1)Credit Rule 144AILS

S

SCR (Solvency Capital Requirement)General Insurance SeasonalityILS Secondary MarketILS Sharpe RatioILS SidecarILS Silent CyberCyber SOFRILS Solvency IIGeneral Insurance Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV)ILS SpreadILS Structuring AgentILS Subordinated DebtCredit Supply Chain AttackCyber

T

Tier 2 CapitalCredit Total Return SwapILS TrancheILS

V

Vulnerability ModuleRisk Modelling

W

Wang TransformRisk Modelling War ExclusionCyber Write-DownCredit

Z

Z-SpreadCredit

Learn ILS properly with ILS101

Move from definitions into structures, pricing, triggers, reinsurance applications, and specialist risk topics.